What’s the Deal With Facebook’s Modeled Conversions?

In Facebook’s words:

“Modeling uses aggregated data from different sources to account for conversions we’re unable to count directly due to various factors, including cross-site tracking limitations.


In practice what we have been seeing is a larger and larger discrepancy between where Facebook is placing conversions on the ad set and ad level and where Shopify/Google Analytics is saying these conversions came from.

For Example:

  • Ad Set 1: 10 sales in Facebook, 2 sales in GA
  • Ad Set 2: 4 sales in Facebook, 14 sales in GA


Recommendations for how to be get Facebook to behave how you want it to.

  • Leave ads/ad sets on that have strong GA/Shopify sales even if Facebook isn’t reporting these as sales yet. Eventually Facebook will figure out these ads/ad sets are working.
  • Launch less ads per ad set so there is less room for error with Facebook’s modeling.



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